The NBA Draft 2008: An Attempt at Analyzing the First Round

Most websites attempt to predict who will be drafted before the start of the actual draft. My friend, Ian, and I take a different approach – we guess who will be selected right before they announce each pick. One would think this would be much easier, but not for us. Here is a recap and analysis.

1. Bulls – Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis

My guess: Derrick Rose

Ian: Derrick Rose

Analysis: A few minutes before the draft started, ESPN confirmed that the Bulls would draft Rose. Didn’t we all know this weeks ago? Anyone who follows the NBA is aware of how good he is, so I won’t go into an analysis of how he will fit into the Bulls team. The only question is where will Kirk Hinrich be playing next year?

2. Heat – Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas St.

My guess: Michael Beasley

Ian: Michael Beasley

Analysis: Days before the draft there were several reports of how impressed the Heat were with O.J. Mayo and how they were now conflicted over which player to choose. Ian and I weren’t fooled. Anyone who has seen Beasley play knows that he will immediately be an impact player and likely a star.

3. Timberwolves – O.J. Mayo, G, USC

My guess: O.J. Mayo

Ian: Jerryd Bayless

Analysis: Due to the Heat being openly enamoured with Mayo, he became the obvious selection at number three. Mayo has star potential who should at the very least be a good scorer in the league. He was traded to the Grizzlies following the draft which shouldn’t change his impact during his rookie year – either team would probably use him as a starter from day one.

4. Sonics – Russell Westbrook, G, UCLA

My guess: Jerryd Bayless

Ian: Brook Lopez

Analysis: I actually threw out Westbrook’s name to Ian who said it was too early, so we of course were wrong. Westbrook emerged as a huge prospect towards the end of the season. He has all the skills to become an excellent point guard, just not the experience as he played the two in college.

5. Grizzlies – Kevin Love, PF, UCLA

My guess: Kevin Love

Ian: Kevin Love

Analysis: With the Grizzlies severely lacking in big men, Ian and I knew this to be the pick. Love is big and has some skills – not star skills, but starter skills. For the Grizzlies, the next obvious move was to trade him for another guard.

6. Knicks – Danilo Gallinari, F, Italy.

My guess: Danilo Gallinari

Ian: Jerryd Bayless

Analysis: I have never seen Gallianari play, but by all accounts, he has skills. Knicks fans hated this pick, as did Ian (hoping he would fall to his beloved Nets), but better this international prospect than another poor character, no defense guy.

7. Clippers – Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana

My guess: Jerryd Bayless

Ian: Jerryd Bayless

Analysis: Both Ian and I thought it would be a good idea if they selected a point guard, knowing that current point guard Shaun Livingston will most likely get injured falling out of bed or tying his shoes before the start of the season. However, Gordon looks to be a good scoring guard who can replace the aging Cuttino Mobley.

8. Bucks – Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia.

My guess: Jerryd Bayless, *Second guess: Joe Alexander

Ian: Jerryd Bayless, Second guess: Joe Alexander

*As the draft progressed, we realized the likelihood of us correctly choosing the right player diminished. So we thought it would be more fun if we had two guesses. This came in very handy later on, when the Darrell Arthur free fall began.

Analysis: We both thought Bayless would be an upgrade over Maurice Williams in the long run. Plus, the Bucks acquired Richard Jefferson earlier in the day – eliminating their need for a small forward. But Joe Alexander said something about actually wanting to play in Milwaukee, so they had to take him, right? Alexander should be a good player. He tested well pre-draft in vertical leap and strength. Combine this with his aptitude for scoring the basketball and he looks to be what Austin Croshere was once paid to be (AKA An agressive scoring/rebounding starting forward for the next decade).

9. Bobcats – D.J. Augustine, PG, Texas

My guess: Brook Lopez, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless

Ian: Brook Lopez, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless

Analysis: The thinking here was that Lopez was certainly an upgrade over Nazr Mohammed -providing them with an excellent defensive frontcourt playing alongside Emeka Okafor. Michael Jordan and Larry Brown thought otherwise. The decision here likely means that Raymond Felton’s days are numbered as a Bobcat. Augustin is a true point who is probably an improvement at the one – at least team cohesion-wise.

10. Nets – Brook Lopez, C, Stanford

My guess: Brook Lopez, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless

Ian: Jerryd Bayless, Second guess: Brook Lopez

Analysis: Lopez is an excellent pick for the Nets. He is a well-rounded center who can score a bit, play defense, and rebound. It will be a nice change from this past year’s group – Nenad Krstic (good scorer, not a great rebounder or defender), Stromile Swift (all-around underachiever), Desagana Diop (shot-blocking only), and Sean Williams (talented, but uncertain how will develop).

11. Pacers – Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona.

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless

Analysis: The Pacers traded for point guard T.J. Ford the previous day, so drafting Bayless made no sense at the time. A few minutes later he was traded to Portland. Bayless is an great acquisition for Portland, who started the very skill-limited Steve Blake last season. Bayless is a great scoring-point who gives the Blazers yet another young stud to build around.

12. Kings – Jason Thompson, PF/C, Rider

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Brandon Rush

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Anthony Randolph

Analysis: No doubt the Kings picked Thompson just to screw with everyone’s draft predictions. Thompson did show to be a talented scorer (albeit in a week league), but the Kings probably could have acquired him and another player or draft pick by trading this pick.

Blazers – Brandon Rush, G/F, Kansas.

My guess: Anthony Randolph, Second guess: Donte Green

Ian: Anthony Randolph, Second guess: Darrell Arthur

Analysis: Ian and I figured a young small forward would compliment the rest of the youthful Blazers. However, the Blazers ended up drafting Rush and trading him for Bayless – an even bigger improvement over drafting Rush. Rush has limited upside but is NBA-ready and can be a starter in this league.

14. Warriors – Anthony Randolph, F, LSU

My guess: Anthony Randolph, Second guess: Darrell Arthur

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Anthony Randolph

Analysis: Randolph is uber-athletic with a huge upside. If Randolph, center Andres Biendrins, and forward Brandon Wright all develop as expected, the Warriors will be title contenders in a few years.

15. Suns – Robin Lopez, C, Stanford

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan.

Ian: Donte Greene, Second guess: Darrell Arthur.

Analysis: Arthur was the best player on the board (pre-kidney injury discussion) and I believed Deandre Jordan would be a good mentee/injury-replacement for Shaq. The Suns decided on taking Lopez, who is defensive-minded and energetic, but with very limited potential.

16. Sixers – Marreese Speights, PF, Florida

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second Guess: Marreese Speights

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene

Analysis: Some experts say that Speights is a poor-man’s Elton Brand. If that’s the case, then he is definitely a step up from Reggie Evans.

17. Pacers - Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan

Analysis: The Pacers haven’t had anyone this tall or slow since Rik Smits. In all seriousness, Hibbert does have some skills and is an improvement on Jeff Foster.

18. Wizards – JaVale McGee, C, Nevada

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene

Analysis: Ian and I laughed continuously at our friend, Dave (a Wizards fan) and almost missed making our picks for nu,ber 19. That’s all that needs to be said regarding our feelings on this one.

19. Cavs - J.J. Hickson, PF, NC State

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan

Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Darrell Arthur

Analysis: Heard good things about Hickson’s skills to believe he will have a long NBA career. You would think Arthur would have a better upside though, right?

20. Bobcats: Alexis Ajinca, C, France

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos

Analysis: At this point, we were begging anyone to take Arthur. If not to stop watching him be interviewed as he waited, at least to help us with our guesses. Come on. I personally haven’t seen Ajinca guy play, which is similar to most people I suppose. He averaged only 5 points per game in France.

21. Nets – Ryan Anderson, F, California

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene

Analysis: Another pass on Arthur. Anderson’s college stats were pretty impressive. May be a sleeper here.

22. Magic – Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos

Ian: Darell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos

Analysis: The Magic could have used a big man but I suppose they want to start pushing J.J. Redick out the door.

23. Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio St.

My guess: Kosta Koufos, Second guess: Darrell Arthur

Ian: Kosta Koufos, Second guess: Darrell Arthur

Analysis: The Jazz have an affinity for big, white centers. Also, Koufos has some game. Good pick here.

24. Sonics – Serge Ibaka, PF, Congo

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Serge Ibaka

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Serge Ibaka

Analysis: Ibaka was the obvious choice here. The Sonics love big men with little future in the NBA.

 25. Rockets (traded to Blazers) - Nicolas Batum, SF, France

My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Darrell Arthur

Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Donte Greene

Analysis: We figured Jordan would have been a good replacement for Mutombo – entering his 38th season in the league. Batum looks pretty good from the ESPN footage, though. He was eventually traded to Memhis where he will have a better opportunity to shine.

26. Spurs – George Hill, G, Indiana Purdue

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene

Analysis: Maybe the Spurs know something we don’t (4 titles should prove this), but Arthur seemed a no-brainer here.

27. Blazers (traded to Grizzlies) - Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas

My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan

Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan

Analysis: Finally, someone takes Arthur – and trades him. Plenty of opportunities will arise for him in Memphis.

28. Grizzlies – Donte Greene, F, Syracuse

My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Chris Douglas-Roberts

Ian: Forbes, Second guess: Chris Douglas-Roberts

Analysis: Although playing behind Rudy Gay, Memphis is a good place for him to develop, as the won’t be making the playoffs for awhile.

29. Pistons (Sonics) D.J. White, PF, Indiana

My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Chris Douglas-Roberts

Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: D.J. White

Analysis: The Pistons specialize in selecting big men who can contribute off the bench. I’m going with good pick on this one. That being said, he was then dealt to the Sonics – so now I am conflicted.

30. Celtics – J.R. Giddens, SG, New Mexico

My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Trent Plaisted

Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Trent Plaisted

Analysis: It appeared that better players were on the board, but who is to question the GM that brought Garnett, Allen, and Pierce together?

You can reach me at TheRealNBA@yahoo.com

Sixers: Who Stays? Who Goes?

“You can make the case, in Philly’s first full season AAI (After Allen Iverson), that this is the only team in the East with zero hope of reaching the playoffs. Even if Larry Brown ends up taking this job back from Mo Cheeks.” Marc Stein’s 2007-08 Preseason Power Rankings on ESPN.com

When considering the above preseason analysis, a 40-42 record and a playoff berth can be considered a success. Prior to the start of the season, there was little reason to believe a team playing without its two star players (Allen Iverson and Chris Webber) from the previous season could be competitive when that team could not even make the postseason. So how did the Sixers make the playoffs? I am glad you asked.

Reason #1 – Andre Miller. The most talented player on the Sixers is Andre Iguodala, but the MVP has to be Andre Miller. Miller appeared in every game, alternately playing roles of scorer, passer, leader, and big-shot maker at different points in the season. Defying the notion that he is on a career decline, Miller stepped up his game throughout the season.

Reason #2 – Chemistry and character. There is not one J.R. Rider on this squad. Watching almost every minute of every game this season, there wasn’t one moment when I wanted to physically harm a Sixer (unlike most Eagles’ games). Everyone of these guys seemed to enjoy playing, hustles, and cheers for their teammates. I’m certain it is not as perfect as I describe, but If you think this doesn’t help a team succeed, you obviously haven’t seen a Knicks’ game. A lot of the credit is given to coach Mo Cheeks, and this is why he’ll be back another year.

Reason #3 – Health. Before the season began, I read predictions that the Sixers would win as low as 21 games. My thought? No way a team with the Andres (Miller and Iguodala) playing 82 games a piece wins less than 30. NBA players are injured so frequently in games, practices, and by stray baggage carts that when a team’s opening day lineup misses only 9 (yes 9 – Green 8 and Evans 1) games during the season, you are going to win a fair share of games you shouldn’t against banged up opponents. Add in that significant reserves Jason Smith, Louis Williams, Rodney Carney, and Thaddeus Young all played in 70 or more games, and you wonder how they could not make the playoffs.

Okay, so they made the playoffs and lost in the first round. Now the question is who do you keep in your quest for a title and who do you move? Let’s look at this position by position.

Point Guard

Starter: Andre Miller. As mentioned above, Miller was the team MVP from this past season. Obviously, keeping him you know you will get excellent play for 82 games. However, the rest of the team’s core is quite young and may only start to peak when Miller’s talent declines. Also, his trade value is the highest it will ever be, as he is coming off an excellent season AND is in the last year of his contract. So do the Sixers keep Miller, trade some youth for veterans and go title-hunting now, or trade Miller and go for the youth movement?

Backup: Louis Williams. Williams is a young, explosive sixth man who is slowly developing point guard skills. The question is whether this 21 year old can develop into a starting point or is his future as the scorer off the bench? Either way, he has shown himself to be a valuable player and a tradeable asset if the Sixers choose to go older. Note: Title contenders rarely play two guards 6′2″ and under in the fourth quarter, as the Sixers did this past season.

 Third String: Kevin Ollie. I have to admit, I am a Kevin Ollie fan. I don’t know if it’s the funny mustache or just that he doesn’t seem to care how often he plays, but I hope he gets to play somewhere next year. He is a solid defensive player who rarely turns the ball over. Unfortunately, his contract is up and I am not the Sixers’ GM.

Shooting Guard

Starter: Willie Green. Willie Green had his finest season as a professional in 2007-08. Unfortunately, he still is not close to being a legitimate NBA starter. He scores fairly well when not in pressure situations and his defense was better than I expected. On the downside, his jumper looks like it will always be inconsistent and he often struggles to score for long stretches. I imagine the Sixers will move him to the bench next season, where he will be an overpaid reserve for the next few years.

Backup: Rodney Carney. Carney is actually more of a small forward, but no one else seemed to fit the mold of backup shooting guard. For the first half of the season, I was wagering with my friends that Carney would be out of the league in a couple years. The Sixers’ management probably felt the same way and relayed it to Carney who majorly stepped up his game in the second half of the season. Carney will never be a star in this league, but if he sticks to dribbling little, dunking in transition, working on his three-point accuracy, and becoming a defensive stopper, he will become a valuable role player. He is an awesome athlete who has all the tools to become a Bruce Bowen-like defensive stud.

Small Forward

Starter: Andre Iguodala. Andre is the most talented player on the squad. He is both a good scorer and defender who at times plays like a superstar (the win in Boston this year being a prime example). The problem is that he will never be a superstar. He lacks a great jump shot and is not outstanding at creating his own shot. That being said, he is definitely capable of being a number 2 or 3 best player on a contending team.

Backup: Thaddeus Young. This is where the Sixers have an issue. Young is probably the second most talented player on the Sixers at present, with the ability to be the best. The problem is that he plays the same position as Iguodala. You can make the case that Young could play the 4 as he did a lot this past season or Iguodala can play the three. This may work against some teams, but Young is a bit small to play the 4 and Iguodala doesn’t shoot well enough to play the 2. Anyway, Young has the ability to be an all star in this league if he can further develop his three-point shot and post moves against smaller players. He also is a hustler on defense. If I had to decide whether to keep Young or Iguodala, I might just go with Young.

Power Forward

Starter: Reggie Evans. When the Sixers swapped Steven Hunter for Evans, I was mildly pleased. On the upside, the Sixers received a true power forward. On the downside, his contract is longer than Hunter’s. By the end of the season, I was just happy on all fronts, as I am just an Evans’ fan. He may not be starter material and his offensive game is offensive. However, I love his hustle, rebounding, and positive energy. His toughness is also much needed on this team. I certainly don’t want him as a starter, but would like to see him for 15-20 minutes a game for the next few years.

Backup: Louis Amundson. Really the Sixers just rotated Young, Evans, and Smith at the power forward spot, but I’ve already discussed two of them and Smith will appear in center review. Amundson had a contract for the entire season, but appeared in only sixteen games. He is an under-sized power forward who offensive ability is comparable to Evans. He is a likeable, high energy guy who you don’t mind seeing jumping about for 5 minutes a game, but will likely not be back next season.

Third String: Shavlik Randolph. Randolph has been injured for much of the past two seasons, which has limited his ability to prove his value. As a rookie, he showed some promise as a hustle-guy who is a legitimate 6′10″. He also can hit the 15 footer on occasion and drives hard to the basket. If he can stay healthy, he may have a future as a backup somewhere. I imagine the Sixers will at least give a camp invite.

Fourth String: Herbert Hill. Hill spent the season on the injured list. Prior to the season, he showed some good offensive ability within 10 feet. He should be vying for a roster spot again this season.

Center

Starter: Samuel Dalembert. Then GM Billy King signed Dalembert to a fairly large contract a few years ago. People laughed and laughed until it became apparent that Sammy is a legitimate center. He is decent offensively when compared to other centers and is a very good shot-blocker. Also, he finally figured out how to goal-tend less. With Dalembert achoring the Sixers’ defense and the derth of alternatives at center, he will most certainly be the starting center next season.

Backup: Jason Smith. When I watched Smith during the summer league last year, I thought he was horrible. A few months later he was a completely different player appearing against pros for 15 minutes a night. Smith is a face-the-basket type of big man who has a decent jumper. But what impressed me most about him is the way he aggressively tries to block shots, even if it means being dunked on a decent amount. He needs to get stronger and become a better rebounder, but he has the potential to start in this league.

Third String: Calvin Booth. Booth appeared sparingly this season and when he did you could see why. He doesn’t have any real offensive skills and has limited strength for a big man. He can block shots, which I guess always puts him in position for a third string spot.

Next week I will play GM and explore what I think are some avenues the Sixers can take in the off season.

You can contact me at TheRealNBA@yahoo.com