Most websites attempt to predict who will be drafted before the start of the actual draft. My friend, Ian, and I take a different approach – we guess who will be selected right before they announce each pick. One would think this would be much easier, but not for us. Here is a recap and analysis.
1. Bulls – Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis
My guess: Derrick Rose
Ian: Derrick Rose
Analysis: A few minutes before the draft started, ESPN confirmed that the Bulls would draft Rose. Didn’t we all know this weeks ago? Anyone who follows the NBA is aware of how good he is, so I won’t go into an analysis of how he will fit into the Bulls team. The only question is where will Kirk Hinrich be playing next year?
2. Heat – Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas St.
My guess: Michael Beasley
Ian: Michael Beasley
Analysis: Days before the draft there were several reports of how impressed the Heat were with O.J. Mayo and how they were now conflicted over which player to choose. Ian and I weren’t fooled. Anyone who has seen Beasley play knows that he will immediately be an impact player and likely a star.
3. Timberwolves – O.J. Mayo, G, USC
My guess: O.J. Mayo
Ian: Jerryd Bayless
Analysis: Due to the Heat being openly enamoured with Mayo, he became the obvious selection at number three. Mayo has star potential who should at the very least be a good scorer in the league. He was traded to the Grizzlies following the draft which shouldn’t change his impact during his rookie year – either team would probably use him as a starter from day one.
4. Sonics – Russell Westbrook, G, UCLA
My guess: Jerryd Bayless
Ian: Brook Lopez
Analysis: I actually threw out Westbrook’s name to Ian who said it was too early, so we of course were wrong. Westbrook emerged as a huge prospect towards the end of the season. He has all the skills to become an excellent point guard, just not the experience as he played the two in college.
5. Grizzlies – Kevin Love, PF, UCLA
My guess: Kevin Love
Ian: Kevin Love
Analysis: With the Grizzlies severely lacking in big men, Ian and I knew this to be the pick. Love is big and has some skills – not star skills, but starter skills. For the Grizzlies, the next obvious move was to trade him for another guard.
6. Knicks – Danilo Gallinari, F, Italy.
My guess: Danilo Gallinari
Ian: Jerryd Bayless
Analysis: I have never seen Gallianari play, but by all accounts, he has skills. Knicks fans hated this pick, as did Ian (hoping he would fall to his beloved Nets), but better this international prospect than another poor character, no defense guy.
7. Clippers – Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana
My guess: Jerryd Bayless
Ian: Jerryd Bayless
Analysis: Both Ian and I thought it would be a good idea if they selected a point guard, knowing that current point guard Shaun Livingston will most likely get injured falling out of bed or tying his shoes before the start of the season. However, Gordon looks to be a good scoring guard who can replace the aging Cuttino Mobley.
8. Bucks – Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia.
My guess: Jerryd Bayless, *Second guess: Joe Alexander
Ian: Jerryd Bayless, Second guess: Joe Alexander
*As the draft progressed, we realized the likelihood of us correctly choosing the right player diminished. So we thought it would be more fun if we had two guesses. This came in very handy later on, when the Darrell Arthur free fall began.
Analysis: We both thought Bayless would be an upgrade over Maurice Williams in the long run. Plus, the Bucks acquired Richard Jefferson earlier in the day – eliminating their need for a small forward. But Joe Alexander said something about actually wanting to play in Milwaukee, so they had to take him, right? Alexander should be a good player. He tested well pre-draft in vertical leap and strength. Combine this with his aptitude for scoring the basketball and he looks to be what Austin Croshere was once paid to be (AKA An agressive scoring/rebounding starting forward for the next decade).
9. Bobcats – D.J. Augustine, PG, Texas
My guess: Brook Lopez, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless
Ian: Brook Lopez, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless
Analysis: The thinking here was that Lopez was certainly an upgrade over Nazr Mohammed -providing them with an excellent defensive frontcourt playing alongside Emeka Okafor. Michael Jordan and Larry Brown thought otherwise. The decision here likely means that Raymond Felton’s days are numbered as a Bobcat. Augustin is a true point who is probably an improvement at the one – at least team cohesion-wise.
10. Nets – Brook Lopez, C, Stanford
My guess: Brook Lopez, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless
Ian: Jerryd Bayless, Second guess: Brook Lopez
Analysis: Lopez is an excellent pick for the Nets. He is a well-rounded center who can score a bit, play defense, and rebound. It will be a nice change from this past year’s group – Nenad Krstic (good scorer, not a great rebounder or defender), Stromile Swift (all-around underachiever), Desagana Diop (shot-blocking only), and Sean Williams (talented, but uncertain how will develop).
11. Pacers – Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona.
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Jerryd Bayless
Analysis: The Pacers traded for point guard T.J. Ford the previous day, so drafting Bayless made no sense at the time. A few minutes later he was traded to Portland. Bayless is an great acquisition for Portland, who started the very skill-limited Steve Blake last season. Bayless is a great scoring-point who gives the Blazers yet another young stud to build around.
12. Kings – Jason Thompson, PF/C, Rider
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Brandon Rush
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Anthony Randolph
Analysis: No doubt the Kings picked Thompson just to screw with everyone’s draft predictions. Thompson did show to be a talented scorer (albeit in a week league), but the Kings probably could have acquired him and another player or draft pick by trading this pick.
Blazers – Brandon Rush, G/F, Kansas.
My guess: Anthony Randolph, Second guess: Donte Green
Ian: Anthony Randolph, Second guess: Darrell Arthur
Analysis: Ian and I figured a young small forward would compliment the rest of the youthful Blazers. However, the Blazers ended up drafting Rush and trading him for Bayless – an even bigger improvement over drafting Rush. Rush has limited upside but is NBA-ready and can be a starter in this league.
14. Warriors – Anthony Randolph, F, LSU
My guess: Anthony Randolph, Second guess: Darrell Arthur
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Anthony Randolph
Analysis: Randolph is uber-athletic with a huge upside. If Randolph, center Andres Biendrins, and forward Brandon Wright all develop as expected, the Warriors will be title contenders in a few years.
15. Suns – Robin Lopez, C, Stanford
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan.
Ian: Donte Greene, Second guess: Darrell Arthur.
Analysis: Arthur was the best player on the board (pre-kidney injury discussion) and I believed Deandre Jordan would be a good mentee/injury-replacement for Shaq. The Suns decided on taking Lopez, who is defensive-minded and energetic, but with very limited potential.
16. Sixers – Marreese Speights, PF, Florida
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second Guess: Marreese Speights
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene
Analysis: Some experts say that Speights is a poor-man’s Elton Brand. If that’s the case, then he is definitely a step up from Reggie Evans.
17. Pacers - Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan
Analysis: The Pacers haven’t had anyone this tall or slow since Rik Smits. In all seriousness, Hibbert does have some skills and is an improvement on Jeff Foster.
18. Wizards – JaVale McGee, C, Nevada
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene
Analysis: Ian and I laughed continuously at our friend, Dave (a Wizards fan) and almost missed making our picks for nu,ber 19. That’s all that needs to be said regarding our feelings on this one.
19. Cavs - J.J. Hickson, PF, NC State
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan
Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Darrell Arthur
Analysis: Heard good things about Hickson’s skills to believe he will have a long NBA career. You would think Arthur would have a better upside though, right?
20. Bobcats: Alexis Ajinca, C, France
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos
Analysis: At this point, we were begging anyone to take Arthur. If not to stop watching him be interviewed as he waited, at least to help us with our guesses. Come on. I personally haven’t seen Ajinca guy play, which is similar to most people I suppose. He averaged only 5 points per game in France.
21. Nets – Ryan Anderson, F, California
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene
Analysis: Another pass on Arthur. Anderson’s college stats were pretty impressive. May be a sleeper here.
22. Magic – Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos
Ian: Darell Arthur, Second guess: Kosta Koufos
Analysis: The Magic could have used a big man but I suppose they want to start pushing J.J. Redick out the door.
23. Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio St.
My guess: Kosta Koufos, Second guess: Darrell Arthur
Ian: Kosta Koufos, Second guess: Darrell Arthur
Analysis: The Jazz have an affinity for big, white centers. Also, Koufos has some game. Good pick here.
24. Sonics – Serge Ibaka, PF, Congo
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Serge Ibaka
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Serge Ibaka
Analysis: Ibaka was the obvious choice here. The Sonics love big men with little future in the NBA.
25. Rockets (traded to Blazers) - Nicolas Batum, SF, France
My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Darrell Arthur
Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Donte Greene
Analysis: We figured Jordan would have been a good replacement for Mutombo – entering his 38th season in the league. Batum looks pretty good from the ESPN footage, though. He was eventually traded to Memhis where he will have a better opportunity to shine.
26. Spurs – George Hill, G, Indiana Purdue
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Donte Greene
Analysis: Maybe the Spurs know something we don’t (4 titles should prove this), but Arthur seemed a no-brainer here.
27. Blazers (traded to Grizzlies) - Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas
My guess: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan
Ian: Darrell Arthur, Second guess: Deandre Jordan
Analysis: Finally, someone takes Arthur – and trades him. Plenty of opportunities will arise for him in Memphis.
28. Grizzlies – Donte Greene, F, Syracuse
My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Chris Douglas-Roberts
Ian: Forbes, Second guess: Chris Douglas-Roberts
Analysis: Although playing behind Rudy Gay, Memphis is a good place for him to develop, as the won’t be making the playoffs for awhile.
29. Pistons (Sonics) D.J. White, PF, Indiana
My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Chris Douglas-Roberts
Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: D.J. White
Analysis: The Pistons specialize in selecting big men who can contribute off the bench. I’m going with good pick on this one. That being said, he was then dealt to the Sonics – so now I am conflicted.
30. Celtics – J.R. Giddens, SG, New Mexico
My guess: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Trent Plaisted
Ian: Deandre Jordan, Second guess: Trent Plaisted
Analysis: It appeared that better players were on the board, but who is to question the GM that brought Garnett, Allen, and Pierce together?
You can reach me at TheRealNBA@yahoo.com
